How will coronavirus change the world?

Encyclopedia of Opinion

Question: How will coronavirus change the world?
Position‹5 of 5: Coronavirus will impact the way we live
Argument‹3 of 4›: Coronavirus will reduce smoking

Coronavirus is a respiratory disease, and has been seen to affect those with weakened lungs with much more ferocity. The pandemic will shock millions of smokers into giving up.

The argument

COVID-19 is likely to have an impact upon smoking rates for several reasons. Firstly, the threat of serious respiratory disease and a higher death rate from smoking will lead many people to cut back or quit smoking. Secondly, those who develop the disease may have to stop smoking due to severe respiratory symptoms and if people are hospitalised. Many that are forced to quit for a few weeks will have gone through the worst part of withdrawal so may use the opportunity to not start again. Finally, smokers are much more likely to die of COVID-19 hence its significant impact in countries with high smoking rates like China and Italy – where it is 21%. The significantly higher death rates amongst Chinese men is also reflected in much higher smoking rates amongst men - 288 million Chinese men compared with 12·6 million women in 2018).. So when COVID-19 recedes there will be literally less smokers around.

Premises

[P1]The threat of serious respiratory disease and a higher COVID death rate will lead many people to cut back or quit smoking. [P2] Those hospitalised are forced to quit through the worst of withdrawal, giving them a chance not to restart. [P3] Smokers are also far more likely to die of COVID, especially in high-smoking populations, so fewer smokers will remain once it recedes. [C] Therefore, because coronavirus will reduce smoking, it will impact the way we live.

Counter-arguments

Critics call the prediction speculative and note the pressures ran in both directions. Lockdowns brought stress, boredom, anxiety and disrupted routines — conditions associated with more smoking and with relapse among people who had quit — so it is not clear the pandemic reduced smoking on balance rather than increasing it for many. Being forced to stop while hospitalised, they add, does not reliably translate into lasting cessation once a patient recovers. They also question the demographic claim: while smokers faced higher COVID risk, deaths were a small fraction of the smoking population, too few to shift overall smoking rates meaningfully, and early reports even muddled the picture by suggesting nicotine might be protective. On this view the effect of the pandemic on smoking is uncertain and possibly negative, so it is a weak illustration of how coronavirus changed the way we live.

Rejecting the premises

[Rejecting P1] Critics note lockdown stress, boredom and anxiety are linked to increased smoking and relapse, so the pandemic may have raised smoking for many rather than prompting quitting. [Rejecting P3] Higher COVID mortality among smokers still involved a small fraction of all smokers, too few to reduce population smoking rates appreciably, so 'fewer smokers will remain' does not follow.