Where is Kim Jong-un?

Encyclopedia of Opinion

Question: Where is Kim Jong-un?
Position1 of 4›: Kim Jong-un is dead
Argument: Kim Jong Un has disappeared

Kim-Jong Un’s death is being kept a secret from the public.

The argument

Kim-Jong Un has been rarely and sporadically spotted from April to June of 2020. During this time, many speculated that he was dead, but he kept reappearing through June. As of June 30, 2020, he has not been seen publicly in three weeks. That means zero contact with the citizenry or media. A U.S. intelligence official recently stated that he thought Kim-Jong Un was in “grave danger." He has had health problems, and they could be the cause of his death. His continued absence from the public eye suggests that the aforementioned grave danger has caused the great leader’s death. It has not been publicly announced, but this does not mean it did not happen. North Korea’s government is somewhat unstable, and the transition of power after Kim-Jong Un’s death is likely a messy affair. Before they release the news of their leader's death, other leaders are probably spending time sorting out this transition of power. Kim Jong-Un could have died at any point recently because his public appearances can be faked. It’s definitively known that he has at least two lookalikes/body doubles whom he uses on occasions unknown to us. They could be the ones making these sporadic appearances to assuage the public and media while the other leaders finish transitioning power.

Context

Kim Jong-Un is the controversial leader of North Korea. Global intelligence and security currently depend on confirming whether Kim-Jong Un has died because the country has weapons that could be cataclysmic in the wrong hands.

Premises

[P1]Proponents of the claim noted that Kim Jong-un was only rarely and sporadically seen between April and June 2020, with a US intelligence official reportedly saying he was in 'grave danger' amid known health problems, and that as of late June he had not appeared publicly for three weeks. [P2] They argued his continued absence, combined with the likelihood of a messy power transition being quietly arranged and his known use of body doubles who could fake the sporadic appearances, was consistent with an unannounced death. [C] On this reasoning, adherents held that Kim Jong-un is dead — a claim that later proved unfounded when he reappeared.

Counter-arguments

Kim-Jong Un is likely just staying away from people during the COVID-19 pandemic, as is recommended. A public figure staying at home need not be thought of as dead. He could be resting, or just sick. (Japan’s defense minister thinks so.) Such seismic and seminal news as Kim Jong-Un’s death could not realistically be kept a secret from the public. No matter how messy the transition of power may be, news of it would be leaked. The likelihood that Kim-Jong Un’s public appearances are being faked by body doubles is ludicrous. There’s no antecedent for it. Why would a new leader want to hide behind a doppelganger in a manner akin to the Wizard of Oz? The theory lacks enough evidence to make it make sense.

Rejecting the premises

[Rejecting P1] Absence from public view is weak evidence in a state that discloses little about its leadership by design, and this leader had withdrawn for extended periods before. The 'grave danger' remark was an unnamed official's characterisation reported second-hand rather than a published assessment, and the premise treats known health problems as the cause of a death it has not established. [Rejecting P2] The body-double element makes the claim unfalsifiable: any appearance can be dismissed as a stand-in, so no observation could count against the theory — a defect rather than a strength. The reasoning is self-sealing on the announcement too, reading official silence as confirmation when silence is what would be expected either way. Events settled the question in any case: Kim Jong-un appeared publicly in May 2020 and has been seen regularly since.