Amelia Earhart died when her plane crashed near Gardner Island (Nikumaroro)

The argument

Contrary to popular belief, this argument holds that Amelia Earhart did not die crashing near Howland, but crashing near Gardner Island, also known as Nikumaroro. The hypothesis stems from what an experienced crew would have done once the primary destination could not be found. The reasoning turns on that experience. Due to an inability to locate Howland, Earhart and Noonan decided to turn southward toward Gardner Island. Both Earhart and Noonan possessed significant flying experience, so it is unlikely that they would have wasted time and fuel searching for Howland — a competent crew knows that an unlocated destination becomes a fuel problem before it is a navigation problem. Instead, their efforts would be turned to finding an additional location to land, likely Gardner Island. Therefore, Earhart could have presumably run out of fuel near this island and crashed, as opposed to near Howland, which places the end of the flight some way from where the searches concentrated. The second strand of evidence is what was heard from the aircraft after the expected arrival time. This theory is based on Earhart’s last radio transmissions, with the idea that Earhart landed during the confirmed low tide on the island. That detail does specific work: transmissions require a working aircraft resting on a surface, and an exposed reef at low tide supplies one, which is why the state of the tide is treated as evidence rather than as background. It also explains why nothing was found. The tide would have eventually lifted Earhart’s plane, the Electra, off the reef where it sank or broke up in the surf soon after landing, and a wreck carried off the reef within hours would leave little for later searchers to see. Either way, it is likely that Earhart and Noonan died on impact near Gardner Island, or very soon after landing.

Premises

Counter-arguments

The theory that Amelia Earhart died near Gardner Island, also known as Nikumaroro, is impractical. Firstly, the island and its surrounding waters have been searched many times, similar to other locations where the Elektra was believed to have crashed. In August 2019, ocean explorer Robert Ballard whose accomplishments include locating the RMS Titanic mounted the largest ever search of the area and found nothing. Allison Fundis, Ballard's Chief Operating Officer of the expedition stated, “We felt like if her plane was there, we would have found it pretty early in the expedition.” If anyone were to find the wreckage or evidence, it would be this expedition using the most advanced technology of the time, yet they found nothing.

Rejecting the premises

[Rejecting P1] Reasoning about what experienced pilots would likely have done is not evidence about what they did, and the argument works against itself: a crew capable enough not to waste fuel searching is also a crew unlikely to be lost. Nothing in it rules out the rival account of running out of fuel near Howland. [Rejecting P2] The radio transmissions are said to fit a landing without any of their content being given, and the tide sequence describes what could have happened rather than what did. The premise also has it both ways, offering a survivable landing that leaves the aircraft on a reef and a death on impact. The counter supplies the harder problem: repeated searches of the island and its waters, including the largest yet mounted, have found nothing.