Donald Trump has revitalised the American economy

The argument

Donald Trump’s presidency is responsible for robust economic growth in the US, which is already showing signs of recovery despite the coronavirus pandemic. In the first three years of Trump’s presidency, the US economy created 6.6 million jobs and unemployment was at its lowest in over 50 years in February 2020 at 3.5%. In 2019, there were also around 4.2 million fewer people living in poverty compared with 2018 and the number of Americans on food stamps was at its lowest since 2009. Under Trump, average monthly job gains prior to coronavirus were “robust” and average hourly wages grew by over 3% in the year up to February 2019. Despite the inevitable economic impact of the coronavirus pandemic, the US economy is showing signs of resilience. The Trump administration is aiming for a V-shaped recovery, and the August jobs report by the Labor Department shows a sharper decline in unemployment than was forecasted by economists, from 10.2% to 8.4%, corresponding to a gain of 1.4 million jobs. Labor Department data also shows that businesses created 10.6 million jobs between April and August, a record for a four-month period.

Premises

Counter-arguments

Many of the achievements of Trump’s economic programme owe their success to the Obama administration. Unemployment levels were low at 4.7% when Trump took office and had been in decline since 2011, whilst levels of growth and job creation under Trump prior to the coronavirus pandemic followed a similar trajectory to those during the last three years of Obama’s presidency. For more on this argument, see the argument entitled ‘Joe Biden is responsible for the strong economy under Trump’. Also of concern is the growing national debt as a result of Trump’s tax cuts - as a result of coronavirus aid, national debt is now the highest it has been since the Second World War. Meanwhile, the coronavirus pandemic triggered a loss of over 22 million jobs - even considering those that have been regained, approximately 11.5 million people remain unemployed. In the second quarter of 2020 (April, May and June), the US economy contracted by over 30% and high numbers of unemployment have led to an increase in food stamp claimants, leading to fears regarding the wider impacts of long term unemployment on consumer spending. The Trump administration needs to introduce a further stimulus package to support businesses and prevent a more significant slump.

Rejecting the premises

[Rejecting P1] The pre-pandemic figures are disputed as evidence of a change in direction: unemployment stood at 4.7 percent at the start of the term and had been falling since 2011, and growth and job creation followed much the same trajectory as the final three years of the preceding administration, so the counter reads the numbers as a continuation rather than a revitalisation. It also sets against them the national debt, driven up by the tax cuts and, with coronavirus aid, at its highest level since the Second World War. [Rejecting P2] Resilience is not what the counter finds in the pandemic period: over 22 million jobs were lost and roughly 11.5 million people remained unemployed even after some were regained, the economy contracted by over 30 percent in the second quarter of 2020, and rising food stamp claims prompted concern about the effect of long-term unemployment on consumer spending — with a further stimulus package still needed to support businesses.