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Readers choose books before reading them, and the name is part of the choice
The argument
Proponents of this explanation hold that the decision is commercial and aimed at readers rather than at publishers. The reasoning starts from how books are actually chosen. A reader in front of a shelf or a list has very little to go on: a title, a cover, a category and a name. The decision to pick a book up is made in a few seconds and on that information alone, and it is made before anything in the book itself can have an effect. Whatever influences that moment therefore influences sales out of all proportion to its importance. Proponents argue that a woman's name is one of the things that influences it, because a portion of the reading public treats the author's sex as a signal about the content, expects a different kind of book and declines it on that basis. The expectation need not be hostile or even conscious to have the effect; it only has to shift the few seconds in which the decision is made. On this account the loss is concentrated among readers who would in fact have liked the book, since those are the people who would have bought it had they read a page. The conclusion drawn is that adopting a man's name is a straightforward response to a market that sorts by author before it sorts by quality. Proponents emphasise that the explanation makes no claim about publishers, reviewers or prizes, and so is distinct from the account that treats the name as a way past gatekeepers. The target here is the ordinary reader making an ordinary choice, and the remedy is to remove the one piece of information that is making the choice go the wrong way.
Premises
Counter-arguments
Critics object that the account rests on an assumption about readers it does not establish, and note that the composition of the book buying public, and of the audience for most popular categories, does not obviously support it. They add that a pen name is a costly remedy for the problem described, since it forfeits the recognition a writer's own name accumulates across books, and a writer who expects to publish more than once has a strong reason to prefer a name she can keep building. On this objection the commercial logic, taken seriously, often argues against the practice rather than for it.
Rejecting the premises
[Rejecting P1] Critics hold that recommendation, review and word of mouth do far more of the work of book choice than the few seconds spent at a shelf. [Rejecting P2] The claim about how readers respond to an author's sex is assumed rather than demonstrated. [Rejecting P3] Readers lost at the shelf may be recovered by other routes, so the loss is smaller than the argument needs. [Rejecting C] A pen name forfeits the recognition a writer accumulates across books, so the commercial reasoning can argue against the practice as easily as for it.