China is already ahead in many fields

The argument

The argument rests on a claim about what actually generates conflict between a rising power and an established one. Competition turns dangerous, on this view, when the outcome is still genuinely open, because each side can believe that pressure or confrontation might yet decide which of them leads. Where the question has in practice already been settled, that incentive falls away: there is little left to contest by force. Proponents argue this is the position China now occupies. It is already ahead in many fields, among them artificial intelligence, telecommunications and renewable energy, and these are not peripheral areas but the ones expected to define technological and economic leadership. The advantage is not merely technical, either. Countries are increasingly looking to China for investment and leadership, which is the behaviour of a system adjusting to a leading power rather than one rallying against a challenger. In scientific and military research, where the United States of America still holds a lead, China is closing the gap rather than falling further behind, so movement there runs in the same direction as the advantage it already has. The conclusion follows from combining the mechanism with that assessment. If the grounds for conflict are the grounds for competition, and if China in many senses has already won, then those grounds are far smaller than analysts suggest. There is no need for conflict between China and the rest of the world, because conflict would be a way of deciding something largely decided already: the West has little to gain from contesting an outcome that is in place, and China has little reason to force what it is obtaining anyway through investment, technological advantage and the choices other countries are making. On this reading the rise is peaceful not because of restraint or goodwill but because the structural cause of confrontation, an open contest over who leads, is absent.

Premises

Counter-arguments

Conflict between China and the rest of the world remains a strong possibility due to its outstanding territorial claims in both the South China Sea with Brunei, Taiwan, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Vietnam, and its historical claim over the island of Taiwan, which the USA has promised to protect in any military conflict. China also regularly aligns with pariah states such as Vladimir Putin's Russia, offering them support in the UN Security Council by vetoing any attempts at sanctions. This includes recent attempts by the West to sanction the regime of Bashir Al Assad for the use of chemical weapons which was vetoed by China. Increased military spending in China and a more assertive foreign policy has led many to speculate that China's territorial claims and alliances will be backed up by force.

Rejecting the premises

[Rejecting P1] There are non US-related reasons for China to potentially enter into conflict.