China will surpass the United States economically and is making huge military and technological progress. Will China's rise to global superpower status be peaceful? Or will China's rise not be peaceful due to its authoritarianism and territorial disputes?
Yes, China's rise will be peaceful
China has far to much to lose from conflict with the West, particularly direct military engagement with the USA.
China’s economy is internationally interconnected
It would not be in China's interest to allow conflict that might jeopardise its industrial base or alienate its burgeoning middle class and rich elite.
China has become one of the largest beneficiaries of the international rules based system and would therefore have little interest in seeing it upended.
China's authoritarian behaviour, poor human rights record, and increasingly aggressive foreign policy make conflict likely.
China is still an authoritarian state
The authoritarian nature of China is in direct opposition to Western democracies and their values around human rights, making conflict between the two increasingly likely.
The trade war between China and the USA is based on a realisation amongst policy officials in America that there is room for only one economic super power in the world.
