Will China's rise as a global superpower be peaceful?

China’s economy is internationally interconnected

Question: Will China's rise as a global superpower be peaceful?
Position1 of 2›: Yes, China's rise will be peaceful
Argument‹3 of 3: China’s economy is internationally interconnected

It would not be in China's interest to allow conflict that might jeopardise its industrial base or alienate its burgeoning middle class and rich elite.

The argument

China remains the largest manufacturing base in the world and is integral to the functioning of the international supply chain. Its future prosperity is directly linked with this role. Therefore it would not be in China's interest to allow a conflict that might jeopardise its industrial base. Aside from manufacturing, China also has a burgeoning middle class who aspire to high living standards and a rich elite who enjoy the ability to invest their wealth abroad. The aspirations of both these influential groups within China are tied to the continuation of open markets between China and the rest of the world.

Premises

[P1]China's prosperity depends on its integration into global manufacturing supply chains and open international markets. [P2] Both China's leadership and its influential middle class and elite have economic interests tied to maintaining these international connections. [P3] Engaging in conflict would jeopardise the economic interconnections on which China's prosperity depends. [C] Therefore, China's rise will be peaceful because conflict would undermine the economic interests sustaining its growth.

Counter-arguments

China's rise has been built on unfair and at times illegal economic practices, including espionage and the regular theft of intellectual property. The US President Donald Trump has regularly cited China as a 'currency manipulator', deliberately devaluing its currency to game the international trade system. These tensions have led to a trade war between China and the United States of America, as both parties have announced tariffs on each other’s goods. Some have speculated that this trade war is not simply the manifestation of a personal grudge by the US President, but a realisation among policy officials in America that there is room for only one economic super power in the world.

Rejecting the premises

[Rejecting P1] China's economic position is precarious.