Is Bitcoin the future?

Bitcoin will be replaced by new technology

Question: Is Bitcoin the future?
Position‹2 of 2: No, Bitcoin isn't the future
Argument1 of 3›: Bitcoin will be replaced by new technology

In the fast-paced world of cryptocurrency and financial technology, it is only a matter of time before Bitcoin becomes obsolete.

The argument

With Facebook’s announcement that it is considering developing a cryptocurrency of its own (the Libra) and a number of high-profile backers, the future of Bitcoin has looked increasingly unstable. In the world of financial technology and digital currencies, nothing lasts. It is highly likely that Bitcoin will soon be replaced by something novel and exciting. If cryptocurrencies take off in substantial numbers, there could even be new monetary models that emerge, including a cryptocurrency backed by a central bank. There is no indication that Bitcoin has been made to last.

Context

The world of digital currencies and financial technology is at a particularly critical juncture. New technologies are being developed every month. Most fail, but all it takes it one to rocket to render previous technologies obsolete.

Premises

[P1]In financial technology and digital currencies, established products are rapidly displaced by newer innovations. [P2] Major players like Facebook and potentially central banks are developing rival cryptocurrencies that could supersede Bitcoin. [P3] There is no indication that Bitcoin has been designed or structured to endure such competition. [C] Therefore, Bitcoin is not the future, because it will likely be replaced by new technology.

Counter-arguments

Proponents reply that Bitcoin's particular properties resist easy replacement. Its first-mover network effect, brand, fixed supply and security have already outlasted a decade of would-be 'Bitcoin killers,' and prominent rivals — Facebook's Libra among them — failed to launch at all. A proliferation of new cryptocurrencies no more supersedes Bitcoin than new websites replaced the internet; Bitcoin may simply endure as 'digital gold' alongside newer systems rather than be displaced by them.

Rejecting the premises

[Rejecting P1] 'Nothing lasts in fintech' is an overgeneralisation; Bitcoin's network effect, brand and security have persisted through a decade of would-be replacements. [Rejecting P2] Rival projects, including Facebook's Libra, have repeatedly failed to displace Bitcoin, so their existence is not evidence it will be superseded. [Rejecting P3] Bitcoin's fixed supply and decentralised design are deliberate features aimed at durability, so 'no indication it was made to last' is contestable. [Rejecting C] A proliferation of new cryptocurrencies does not establish that Bitcoin has no future; it may endure alongside them.