- Argument
Increased Serbian Nationalism led to the incitement of conflict
As a region consistently occupied by outer forces, Serbian nationalism in the Balkans peaked in the days before World War 1, and the Assassination of Archduke Ferdinand, which ultimately resulted in the spiraling conflict was World War 1.
The argument
Serbian Nationalism directly led to the Assassination of Archduke Ferdinand of Austria-Hungary by a Bosnian Serb, Gavrilo Princip. Even preceding the actual assassination, Serbia had been seen as a rising threat to Austria. Austrian annexation of Bosnia and Serbia’s strong emergence following the Balkan Wars all resulted in creating a threat towards Austria-Hungary. Additionally, there was consistent rebellion by Serbs against Austria in an effort to bolster their own national identity, even further creating volatility. The growth of nationalistic groups such as 'Unification or Death' ('Black Hand') etc. also led to further initiatives to separate from Austria.
Premises
Counter-arguments
Serbian nationalism is not responsible for World War 1. Austrian and German response to Serbian nationalism resulted in the conflict arising and sucking other world powers into the conflict due to allyships.
Rejecting the premises
[Rejecting P1] The assassination was the occasion of the war rather than its cause, and the premise slides between the two. Being perceived as a rising threat is a fact about Austro-Hungarian policy as much as about Serbia, and treating a perception as an incitement lets the responding power's own decisions drop out of the account. [Rejecting P2] Nationalist agitation and irredentist societies were common across the Balkans and across Europe, so the premise identifies a general condition and assigns particular responsibility to one instance of it. It also stops short of the steps that turned a local crime into a continental war — the ultimatum, the rejection of a near-complete acceptance, the declaration of war, and the alliance commitments and mobilisation timetables the counter points to.