Will a COVID-19 vaccine save us from a permanent new normal?

Encyclopedia of Opinion

Question: Will a COVID-19 vaccine save us from a permanent new normal?
Position1 of 2›: A vaccine will allow us to go back to our normal lives
Argument1 of 2›: There will be no more social distancing

A vaccine will allow us to return to our usual lives. Handshakes and hugs will once again become the norm.

The argument

The UK Prime Minister, Boris Johnson has pledged to end social distancing by October 2021, as talks of a vaccine, and what comes after, are now becoming common. When the vaccine has been safely administered widely across the population, we are likely to see a tendency towards returning to normality. People’s reluctance to give up going to restaurants, pubs and nightclubs until told to do so by the government shows how people want to return to their pre-pandemic routine. Social distancing will be in place for the near future. But as herd immunity is achieved through vaccination, we will see handshakes and hugs becoming commonplace once more.

Premises

[P1]Once a vaccine is safely administered widely, herd immunity will remove the public-health rationale for social distancing. [P2] People have shown a strong desire to return to pre-pandemic routines like pubs, restaurants, and nightclubs as soon as restrictions allow. [P3] Governments, such as the UK's, have already pledged to end social distancing once vaccination is achieved. [C] Therefore, a vaccine will end social distancing and allow a return to normal life.

Counter-arguments

This is a slightly distant future. The earliest we can expect a vaccine is the end of the year. Experts predict it will take many months, possibly even a year, to distribute it to the population. Furthermore, habits we have formed over the many months of lockdown and social distancing measures are unlikely to vanish overnight. We may see the results of months of social distancing for longer than we think.

Rejecting the premises

[Rejecting P1] Herd immunity through vaccination is conditional on uptake, on how far the vaccine blocks transmission rather than severe illness, and on how the virus changes — none of which the premise treats as variable. [Rejecting P2] Wanting to return to pubs and restaurants describes a preference, not what people do. Habits formed over many months of restrictions are unlikely to reverse the moment rules lift, and caution has outlasted mandates before. [Rejecting P3] A government pledge is a statement of intent attached to a timetable that moved repeatedly. It records what ministers hoped for rather than what followed, and the argument leans on it as though it were an outcome.