Encyclopedia of Opinion
Question

Why did US election polling get it wrong in 2016?

Why did the polls misjudge the 2016 US election? This entry maps the explanations — that polls underestimated Trump's support, suffered nonresponse bias, captured dishonest answers, and reflected bias in identifying likely voters.

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2016 polls underestimated Trump's level of support

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2016 polls had issues with nonresponse bias

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Many people in 2016 polls were not honest about who they would vote for

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Pollsters have bias when identifying likely voters