- Question
How do coup d'etats and coup attempts happen?
How and why do coups happen? This entry maps the explanations — that coups are both causes and consequences of civil wars, that they follow military dissatisfaction with the government, and that they come when success looks likely.
Coup d'etats are both causes and consequences of Civil Wars
Proponents argue that coups and civil wars belong to a single cycle: a war enlarges and politicises an army until it turns on the state, and a coup in turn leaves a government whose claim to rule armed opponents are willing to contest.
Coup attempts are likely when there is military dissatisfaction with the government
On this account a coup begins inside the armed forces. Proponents argue that when officers believe their budgets, autonomy, promotions or standing are under threat, the grievance supplies both a motive and the one organisation already able to act on it.
Coup attempts are more likely when there is a strong chance they will succeed
This explanation treats a coup as a calculation rather than a grievance. Proponents argue that discontent is common while attempts are rare, so what distinguishes them is the plotters' reading of whether enough others will join or stand aside.