The EU will take a greater role in defence and security

The argument

Under the presidency of Donald Trump, European countries have increasingly faced criticism over low levels of defence spending and a failure to meet the minimum 2% GDP contribution to NATO. Proponents of this position argue that the criticism arrived alongside several other pressures at once, and that the combination is what matters. This has come at the same time as Britain leaves the European Union, China and Russia undertake increasingly aggressive foreign policies, and Trump's behaviour has come to be perceived as erratic and unpredictable, putting a strain on transatlantic relations. A collective security guarantee is only as strong as the confidence its members place in it, and each of those developments erodes that confidence from a different direction. Within this context, European leaders have begun to revive the idea of a European army and a greater role for the European Union in security and defence policy. The reasoning behind the revival is straightforward on this account: if the American commitment cannot be relied upon, Europe needs a capability it controls itself, and the EU is the institution through which such a capability could be built. The difficulty is what that would do to the existing alliance. While advocates claim such an arrangement would complement existing NATO structures, proponents of this position argue that it is clear the purpose and remit of a new European defence agreement would come into direct conflict with NATO, since two bodies would be laying claim to the same territory, the same forces and the same guarantee. That overlap is where the pressure turns fiscal and political rather than merely institutional. This will lead many European countries, who are members of NATO and the European Union, to question the cost and need for both. Once states funding two overlapping structures ask that question seriously, proponents conclude, the EU takes the greater role in defence and security and NATO is dismantled.

Premises

Counter-arguments

Talk of a European army and a greater role for the European Union in defence and security is not something new. Over the last two decades EU leaders have debated and discussed the idea and made little progress. It is far from certain, as the creation of a European army would require the support of all twenty-seven members, including Eastern European members who remain strongly in favour of NATO. Despite much scaremongering, the EU already has joint-battle groups under its collective security and defence policy that compliments the work of NATO. These battle groups were recently deployed in the Horn of Africa to undertake anti-piracy missions.

Rejecting the premises

[Rejecting P1] A European army is extremely unlikely to ever happen.