- Question
- Is gold a good investment?
- Argument‹2 of 2
Gold is a good investment when bonds have negative yields
Gold does well when real rates are negative. Given inflation is positive today and real rates are negative in nominal and absolute terms, gold will do very well. Unsurprisingly, gold prices are highly correlated to the percentage of government bonds trading with negative yields.
The argument
With gold having a stable monetary position in the world due to it being one of the most valuable natural resources, there's no lack of demand. With its value, people like to use gold as a placeholder or substitute for cash. Many governments also place their money into gold. Many countries have gold reserves; America has fort Knox, the UK has the Bank of England. If the government bonds trading suffers, this only increases the value of gold since an economic decline will only increase its worth. This makes gold a good investment because when the economy suffers, the gold rate is high. It allows for people to have a monetary safety net if the economy takes a hit or their other investments fail. Gold, with how its seen in our world, will always have worth.
Premises
Counter-arguments
Many governments have gold reserves at their disposal due to it having monetary value and strength even when the countries own monetary system might be weak. However, gold is an antiquated resource. Its value is completely derived from historical traditions and social constructs. Practically, gold holds no intrinsic use, and its value is derived solely from its rarity. Furthermore, it does not contribute to economic growth, so personal investment in gold does not help the economy.
Rejecting the premises
[Rejecting P1] Central-bank reserves and use as a cash substitute show that gold is widely held, not that holding it returns anything; a stable monetary position is compatible with long stretches of falling real value. [Rejecting P2] "An economic decline will only increase its worth" is too strong — gold has fallen during downturns when investors sell liquid assets to cover losses elsewhere — and the premise never reaches the negative-yield condition named in the title, which is a claim about the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset rather than about crises in general.