Will China Become the next Super Power?

Encyclopedia of Opinion

Question: Will China Become the next Super Power?
Position1 of 2›: No, China will not become the next superpower
Argument1 of 4›: The United States will sanction China

Much like Iran and North Korea, the US may decide to sanction China. Chinese reliance on trade and export with the US is too great to risk sanctioning, and therefore China may measure their threats to US global supremacy.

The argument

China's rise on the global stage is only due to other powerful nations playing along. That is the crucial qualification usually left out of projections of Chinese supremacy: the growth being extrapolated has taken place inside a trading system that the United States and its allies built, police and could close. If China steps out of line, the US and its allies could sanction China and cripple their economy — which means the ceiling on Chinese power is set not in Beijing but by the tolerance of the countries it sells to. The trade relationship is asymmetric in a way that makes this threat credible. Chinese reliance on trade with the US is great enough that China will need to be cautious in its threats to the US's position on the global stage. China's exports to the US are nearly twice what its imports from the US are, so the US can leverage its position as a consumer of Chinese exports to keep China in line. A buyer can find other suppliers more easily than a seller of that scale can find other buyers, and the side with less to lose from the relationship ending is the side that sets its terms. The dependence is not only commercial. China also has a strong reliance on the US university system to educate its professionals. If access to prominent US universities were threatened, it would also threaten China's ability to learn from prominent sectors of the US economy, such as tech and media — the very sectors on which a bid for superpower status would depend. A country whose elite training and whose largest market both sit inside a rival's jurisdiction has not yet achieved independence, let alone primacy. Nor is the threat hypothetical. Iran and North Korea have both crossed the lines that the US has drawn in terms of economic and military growth, and the consequences for them are a matter of record. If China does the same, it risks economic ruin — which is why China will not become the next superpower.

Premises

[P1]China's economic rise depends heavily on trade with and access to the United States, with exports to the US far exceeding imports and key professionals trained in US universities. [P2] This dependence gives the US leverage to impose crippling sanctions if China challenges American global dominance, as it has done to states like Iran and North Korea. [P3] A nation whose growth can be halted by another power's sanctions cannot ascend to superpower status. [C] Therefore, China will not become the next superpower.

Counter-arguments

Chinese growth over the past few decades has been reliant on US partnership, but the nation is now powerful enough to break away from the partnership. If the US were to sanction China, Chinese officials could then turn towards their emerging investments in Africa and the rest of Asia. Sanctions could cause a temporary blow to the Chinese economy, but it will not be enough to halt its growth. If anything, it will deepen the divide between the US and its allies, with the rest of the world. China can position itself as an independent alternative to US trade, aid, and investment.

Rejecting the premises

[Rejecting P1] China's global influence means sanctions from the US alone will not be enough. [Rejecting P2] China will just increase trade and investment with other regions that it has more leverage over.