Lockdown

According to Oxford epidemiologists Sunetra Gupta, 68% of the UK population have already been infected with the virus and are therefore immune. In this case, the lockdown is doing unnecessary harm to our economy and our lives.

The coronavirus model to come out of Carnegie Mellon predicts that regardless of lockdown, the virus will create panic and kill huge numbers. Professor Wesley Pegden's model shows that unless large numbers of people are exposed at one time, lifting measures will cause the same harm as keeping them in place. In which case, why not end lockdown now?

South Korea has managed to control the virus by disseminating a phone app alerting citizens when they have passed someone infectious. Handing personal information and disclosing one's movements to the government may be the most effective solution. Proponents include Chair of the WHO Dale Fisher and the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health.

The implications of Neil Ferguson's model are clear: lockdown or death on a catastrophic scale. It was Ferguson's forecasting of up to 500,000 UK deaths which resulted in lockdown. If this is the most accurate model we have, it is imperative that we trust it to guide us.

The contact tracing strategy would be entirely reliant on public health workers and contact tracers. People can be easily and quickly trained to fill these positions. They would not only offer valuable advice to the public but also reduce the number of hospitalizations and help the economy rebound.

Advocates point to Hungarian Premier Orban’s rapid increase in power during the crisis as an example of what’s to come if lockdown remains. This group considers lockdown a form of latent despotism that will threaten civil liberties in the post-pandemic world. Proponents include former Supreme Court Justice Lord Sumption and Daily Mail columnist Peter Hitchens.

UK Premier Boris Johnson is fully representative of this position. Having spent his career deriding state interference in personal affairs, the pandemic finally pushed him to introduce the lockdown. The driving idea here is that wherever you stand on the role of the state, during this extraordinary period of global uncertainty, it must assume control of its people to guide us safely forward. Proponents include UK Business Secretary Alok Sharma.

The success of Wuhan's reopening is widely seen as down to their large-scale screening programme. Given the scant and unreliable reports of reinfection, many argue those not at risk should be given 'health passports'. These would allow the gradual reopening of society to those deemed safe by the government. This group believe that it is not right to deny freedom where the individual poses no harm to themselves or others. Proponents include the pharmaceutical lobby, with UK biometrics firm Onfido and Swiss drugmaker Roche already submitting patents for their design.

Advice from the Harvard T. H. Chan School of Business says there is only one way to minimise deaths in the reopening of the country: in phases based on individual vulnerability. The government must decide which groups are immune to the disease and phase normality back.

Many large technology companies are developing apps that can track COVID-19 infections. They can warn individuals when they have been exposed to the disease and they can even mention places to avoid. Such a technological solution could potentially help defeat the virus.