Will the Black Lives matter movement create lasting change?

Encyclopedia of Opinion

Question: Will the Black Lives matter movement create lasting change?
Position‹2 of 2: No, the #BLM Protests will not create lasting change
Argument1 of 4›: A backlash to the movement is inevitable

“There will be a backlash to these actions. ... That backlash may come at the ballot box, or it may come in some other indirect form. Some people aren’t interested in direct confrontation in the streets. They may simply prefer to express their opposition in a way that these protesters expect it least — businesses moving out, reluctance to hire, reluctance to visit a neighborhood, effectively abandoning a community.” — Jim Geraghty, National Review

The argument

After George Floyd’s death, a wide range of protests burst out on streets and social media. Despite awareness of societal racial injustices, the protesters only take action when it is culturally popular. This time, the Black Lives Matter (BLM) movement has taken the spotlight. However, the movement will not create lasting change. Indirect outcomes from the protests may begin to manifest over time. Public demonstrations on the streets and social media do not last long, but the social upheaval they cause can be destructive. Racial resentment may worsen, as the protests create looting and loss of property. The lack of civility and discussion on social media may also worsen racial tensions, with both sides talking past each other. Moreover, superficial achievements confine the movement. During the process, unjust police officers received punishment; more white people joined and advocated for racial justice; “Black Lives Matter” became the national slogan. Some protesters may view these as an achievement, or they may lose the motivation to continue devoting the energy to the cause.

Premises

[P1]Public attention to racial injustice tends to surge only when it is culturally popular, and street and social-media demonstrations do not last long, so their momentum fades. [P2] The disruption can provoke a backlash — looting and property loss may deepen racial resentment, while the movement's more superficial achievements can lead protesters to feel the job is done and lose motivation to sustain the effort. [C] Because a backlash is inevitable and the movement's gains are fragile, the #BLM protests will not create lasting change.

Counter-arguments

The BLM movement will make lasting change, with the issues reaching a wider audience. More white people began reflecting on their behaviors and thinking about their privilege. The popularity and broad support for the movement allowed for substantive changes. Also, companies and organizations adopted policies to protect people of color and foster equity. These changes cannot be retracted, considering the shift in the national debate over racial injustice. The Black Lives Matter movement has a broad impact. It is not just about black people, with other people of color involved in the fight for increased equity. The mass appeal of the movement, and its audible goals of limiting injustice, attests to its legitimacy.

Rejecting the premises

[Rejecting P1] The premise concedes the surge in attention while explaining it away, and its evidence about duration comes from the weeks immediately following the protests — too short a window to establish that momentum faded. It also treats visible demonstration as the whole of a movement, when the durable outcomes claimed for it run through policy, litigation and institutional practice that continue after the streets empty. [Rejecting P2] Backlash and fatigue are asserted as inevitabilities without a mechanism. Disorder at the margins of a mass mobilisation does not show that opinion overall moved against it, and the second half of the premise argues against the first: gains substantial enough to demobilise supporters are gains, so the argument cannot use them both as evidence that little changed and as the cause of the movement's decline.