Will the Black Lives matter movement create lasting change?

There has been a remarkable change in public opinion

Question: Will the Black Lives matter movement create lasting change?
Position1 of 2›: Yes, the #BLM Protests will create lasting change
Argument‹2 of 4›: There has been a remarkable change in public opinion

“In what may represent one of the more rapid shifts in racial attitudes in recent U.S. history ... a broad majority of Americans now believe that both the police and society as a whole are beset by systemic racism.” — Andrew Romano, Yahoo News

The argument

The Black Lives Matter will create lasting change in the United States because there has been an astounding change in public opinion. Since the killing of George Floyd in May 2020, public opinion on criminal justice and racial discrimination have shifted leftwards. During these nationwide protests, Americans of all races, ages, and backgrounds have come together to declare that this country needs to address and reform the problem that is systemic racism. Just 2 weeks after the protests that sparked in the wake of the death of Mr. Floyd, support for Black Lives Matter increased by approximately as much as it had over the previous two years. After being steady for years, support for BLM jumped from 42% to 53% and opposition fell from 31% to 25%. A recent poll has found that the majority of voters agree with statements such as “The anger behind the demonstrations is fully justified. Police are more likely to use deadly force against Americans. There is a lot of discrimination against Black Americans in society”. Back in 2013, when Black Lives Matter began, a majority of voters disagreed with all of these statements. The recent Black Lives Matter will slowly but surely bring about change because of the drastic shift in public opinion and a huge upward trend of support. These protests have caused people and institutions who remained largely quiet about the Black Lives Matter movement to speak out. For example, the NFL commissioner voiced their changed stance on systemic racism. NASCAR spoke out about systemic racism for the first time. Former Republican Presidential candidate Mitt Romney joined protests, and other legislators began supporting the movement to defund the police. The recent Black Lives Matter will slowly but surely bring about change because of the drastic shift in public opinion and a huge upward trend of support.

Premises

[P1]Lasting social change follows from sustained shifts in public opinion and broad-based support. [P2] Since George Floyd's killing, support for Black Lives Matter has surged dramatically, with majorities now agreeing that systemic racism and police violence are real problems. [P3] Previously silent institutions and figures—from the NFL and NASCAR to Mitt Romney—have publicly aligned with the movement, signaling that the shift extends beyond activists to the mainstream. [C] Therefore, the Black Lives Matter protests will create lasting change in the United States.

Counter-arguments

While there has been a recent increase in support of the Black Lives Movement in the wake of the George Floyd and Breonna Taylor police shootings, this does not mean that the movement will have any lasting change. In fact, while a notable number has come to support the movement, as the protests turn more violent, the movement will eventually lose the support it has quickly gained. Moreover, there has not been a huge shift in opinion in those who identify with more right-winged values. Republicans and conservatives are an integral part of the American democracy and if their opinions have not been swayed then no lasting change can ever truly persist.

Rejecting the premises

[Rejecting P1] Shifts in opinion are at most necessary. Turning them into law and institutional practice takes legislative majorities and sustained pressure, and public support has moved on many issues without policy following it. [Rejecting P2] The jump measured was a sharp movement at a moment of maximum attention, and surges of that kind have historically receded; polling in the months that followed showed support falling back towards its earlier level. [Rejecting P3] Institutional statements are cheap and reversible, and the shift was highly asymmetric by party. A change concentrated on one side of a closely divided electorate is precisely the kind that does not deliver durable federal legislation.