Will the Black Lives matter movement create lasting change?

Political winds are shifting in the direction of change

Question: Will the Black Lives matter movement create lasting change?
Position1 of 2›: Yes, the #BLM Protests will create lasting change
Argument‹4 of 4: Political winds are shifting in the direction of change

“The evidence of police brutality has become too widespread even for elected officials to ignore. They can no longer easily coddle police unions in exchange for political support; now ignoring police misconduct will become a political liability, and perhaps something will change.” — Farhad Manjoo, New York Times

The argument

Over recent years, the Black Lives Matter movement has gained widespread attention from viral outrage and continuous protests not only in America but all over the world. With the killing of George Floyd in March 2020, whose video circulated all over Twitter and other social media platforms, the movement reached a tipping point. Powerful protests took over the street, condemning police brutality against Black people and fighting for their justice. As the protestors continue to demand justice, changes in the United States have come into effect. Minneapolis' City Council decided on banning the use of chokeholds by the police. They also required officers to report and intervene when they witness an authorized use of force by another officer. In Buffalo and Louisville, officers were suspended and fired for their misconduct and use of unjust violence. Changes have not only been happening in the United States but all over the world. In England, London's mayor Sadiq Khan has launched a "diversity commission" to investigate statues with ties to slavery, and instead, what new statues should be erected. In Canada, Mexico, and Syria, people have demanded justice and protested in the streets to raise awareness.

Premises

[P1]The killing of George Floyd pushed the Black Lives Matter movement to a global tipping point, with protests condemning police brutality. [P2] Concrete reforms have already followed, such as Minneapolis banning chokeholds and requiring officers to intervene, and officers being fired in Buffalo and Louisville. [P3] The shift is worldwide, from London's commission on slavery-linked statues to protests across Canada, Mexico, and Syria. [C] Therefore, because the political winds are shifting in the direction of change, the BLM protests will create lasting change.

Counter-arguments

The Black Lives Matter movement comes with challenges towards policy reformation, which will lead to backlash from people who don't want change. The bipartisan divide in Congress concerning laws such as immigration, guns, defunding the police will make it difficult to create policy solutions, and no monumental change will come into effect.

Rejecting the premises

[Rejecting P1] Attention is not change: a tipping point in coverage and protest measures how salient an issue has become rather than what followed from it, and salience recedes. [Rejecting P2] The reforms named are municipal and disciplinary — a city council rule, individual suspensions and dismissals — which is a different order of thing from the lasting legislative change the position claims, and the counter notes that national bills stalled along partisan lines. [Rejecting P3] A commission to review statues, and protests in other countries, record the movement's reach rather than any durable alteration to policing; the premise offers nothing to show which of these outlasted the year.