Should colleges and universities open in person for the Fall 2020 semester?

Whether universities should open depends on community transmission

Question: Should colleges and universities open in person for the Fall 2020 semester?
Position‹3 of 3: Depends - On outside data
Argument‹3 of 5›: Whether universities should open depends on community transmission

If the transmission is too high in the community, then no, if low then it may be a reasonable risk.

The argument

Throughout the summer of 2020, the pros and cons have been weighed as to whether or not students should be able to return to college campuses for the Fall semester. Though the risk is high for many areas such as California and Florida, there are several areas where the number of COVID-19 outbreaks has decreased. For the areas where there is a lower risk of contracting the virus, colleges and universities should be allowed to attend classes in-person. As long as students and faculty follow the social distancing guidelines, such as keeping a six-foot distance between students, and the mandatory use of face coverings, the risk of spreading COVID-19 is less likely. Experts have also stressed that screening and testing students for COVID-19 before entering campuses is strongly advised. Students traveling from a high-risk area to a college that is located in a low-risk area should quarantine for at least 14 days before attending classes. For example, as of June 25th, 2020, a travel advisory for New York City was issued, saying that if you have traveled to New York from one of the states with significant community spread, you are required to quarantine for 14 days once you enter the state. As for colleges that are located in high-risk areas, attending classes in person should be put on hold and wait for the number of cases to go down in that area. Colleges and universities should continue with their plans for virtual learning, and to avoid college campuses in areas that have a higher risk.

Premises

[P1]COVID risk varies sharply by area — high in places like California and Florida but declining in others. [P2] In low-risk areas, colleges can safely open in person with distancing, masks, testing, and 14-day quarantine for students arriving from high-risk areas. [P3] In high-risk areas, in-person classes should be held back and kept virtual until cases fall. [C] Therefore, whether universities should open in person depends on community transmission — on outside data.

Counter-arguments

Students returning to colleges for the Fall 2020 semester are putting themselves and others at risk for the spread of COVID-19. Even if safety guidelines are met, there is still a great chance that the virus will spread throughout campuses. There is also concern that students will not follow the proper safety guidelines. Social interaction is a major part of college life, and even with guidelines in place, there is a high chance that students will not properly follow them. If an area is considered low risk for the spread of the virus, the numbers will likely increase, putting more of the population at risk and progress in that area will be lost.

Rejecting the premises

[Rejecting P1] Area-level risk is not a stable property to plan around: transmission changed week to week, so a designation made before a semester says little about conditions during it. [Rejecting P2] Compliance is the weak link. A campus is a residential and social setting rather than a controlled one, and every measure listed depends on students observing it outside the classroom, where the counter argues they will not. [Rejecting P3] The rule is asymmetric in a way the premise does not acknowledge: reopening in a low-risk area can create a high-risk one, since students arrive from everywhere, so "outside data" gathered before arrival cannot govern a decision that changes the data.