- Question
- Will Donald Trump be re-elected?
- Position1 of 2›
- Yes, Donald Trump will be re-elected
Donald Trump dramatically reduced unemployment and reinvigorated the US economy. This track record is critical at a time when the coronavirus is rapidly weakening Trump's economic gains.
The argument
Proponents of this argument hold that Donald Trump has revitalised the US economy through a distinctive set of trade and labour policies, and that this economic record forms the core of his case for re-election. On this view, the administration's central move was to reduce American reliance on foreign exports: by increasing tariffs and pursuing disputes through the World Trade Organization, Trump is said to have shifted the terms of trade in favour of domestic producers. The mechanism advocates describe is straightforward — when imported goods become more expensive and trade rules are contested on America's behalf, demand is redirected toward American firms, which must then hire American workers to meet it. Supporters point to two further strands of the same strategy. First, expanded technical education is presented as the supply-side complement to trade protection: a workforce trained for skilled trades and technical roles can actually fill the jobs that reshored production creates, rather than leaving them vacant. Second, the resulting tightening of the labour market is credited with fostering wage growth — as employers compete for workers, pay rises follow. Alongside these labour-market gains, proponents argue that the same policy environment has helped the stock market, signalling investor confidence and strengthening household wealth. Job creation, rising wages, and buoyant markets are, on this account, three mutually reinforcing signs of a genuinely revitalised economy. The final step of the argument is electoral. A strong economy is treated as the single greatest asset an incumbent can carry into a campaign: voters, advocates hold, reward the president who presides over prosperity. If Trump can credibly claim to have created jobs, lifted wages, and boosted markets, then the economic record he has built becomes the decisive reason to expect that he will be re-elected.
Context
Donald Trump has implemented a series of domestic and international policies to foster domestic production, job creation, and a thriving economy. His use of tariffs has resulted in more job security for Americans, and unemployment rates have consistently dropped.
Premises
Counter-arguments
- It is more expensive to produce goods in the United States, particularly (electrical) machinery and tech modules. Therefore, the residual benefit for both companies and workers is elusive, since production abroad results in an elevated profit margin. - Foreign retaliatory measures almost always convolute the tariff process, canceling out benefits for all parties involved. - It worked – he got elected and put “a 25% tariff on all of the dumped steel all over the country” (Trump). However, four years later, we see a minuscule increase in domestic steel-working jobs, increased tension abroad, and even solvent reprisal from China. - Economic gains and increased job numbers were the result of Obama-era policies
Rejecting the premises
- Argument hinges on the assumption that capitalism is good. Neoliberalism blinds us to slow violence and condemns us to inaction—that kills the environment and is the foundational basis for inequality. - Capitalism is the root cause of all forms of inequality
Framing
Framing to Consider: - Economic Strength - Neoliberalism - Capitalism - Nationalism - Hegemony