Donald Trump is trailing in the 2020 election polls

The argument

- Trump is trailing in key battlegrounds, and even some traditionally red states - His numbers are lower than in 2016 - "Biden is currently leading in swing state polls, putting him on course to win the Electoral College" (Politico)

Context

- Biden's numbers are up in nearly all key states, and he's even gaining territory in Northern battlegrounds. He is up +8 in Michigan and +10 in Wisconsin - Biden is leading in PA - Biden is up in nearly ALL national polls

Premises

Counter-arguments

Supporters of the rival position replied at the time that polling had recently failed in exactly this contest, and the eventual result gave that objection partial support even though the prediction proved correct. National and state polls understated Trump's support again in 2020, and by a wider margin than in 2016: the American Association for Public Opinion Research's post-election review found the national polling error the largest in forty years, with the state-level error larger still. Several of the battlegrounds the argument relies on illustrate the gap — Wisconsin polling averages showed a mid-to-high single-digit Biden lead and the state was decided by roughly six-tenths of a point, and Florida, where Biden led narrowly in the averages, was won by Trump by more than three points. A lead of the size cited was therefore not the safe indicator the argument treats it as. Critics add that the case is presented as three assertions with a single quotation and no discussion of margins of error, undecided voters or the possibility of correlated state errors — the failure mode that had produced the 2016 miss and recurred in 2020.

Rejecting the premises

[Rejecting P1] Trailing in battleground polling was a weaker indicator than presented: the 2020 national polling error was the largest in forty years on the post-election review, and larger still at state level, with Wisconsin polling a mid-to-high single-digit Biden lead before a result of roughly six-tenths of a point and Florida going to Trump by over three points after narrow Biden leads in the averages. [Rejecting P2] A single media assessment of swing-state polling is not independent evidence, since it rests on the same polls, and the argument discusses neither margins of error nor correlated state-level error — the failure mode that produced the 2016 miss and recurred in 2020. [Rejecting C] The conclusion proved right, but not by the route given: the outcome turned on margins far narrower than the polling implied, so the premise did not establish what it was taken to establish.