WWI helped to spread the pandemic

The argument

Recent research suggests that the First World War acted as an incubator for Spanish influenza, and the argument here is that the war did not merely coincide with the pandemic but supplied the conditions that made its spread possible. The outbreak could have originated in the trenches, where large numbers of men lived in close quarters under conditions that suppressed their resistance to infection. What turned a localised outbreak into a global one was the military's own triage. Soldiers with mild cases stayed at the front, which had the effect of containing the disease where it began. Those with more severe cases were sent home, and in being sent home they were moved from the site of the outbreak to destinations spread across the world. The selection therefore worked in exactly the wrong direction: the most infectious cases were the ones given transport away from the trenches, while the milder ones remained behind. When the war ended, the process repeated on a far larger scale, as men whose cases were undetectable returned home in enormous numbers and carried the disease with them. The wider pattern of movement compounded this. During the war and immediately after it, people were moving between countries far more than ever before, and in a period when an infection could be carried without the carrier realising it, that movement was itself a transmission mechanism. Even those without symptoms could spread the disease without knowing they had it. The result was a pandemic of a new kind. Spanish flu was one of the first genuinely global pandemics, whereas previous ones had been contained mostly within individual countries or continents. Because the war is what gave it that reach, this argument concludes, Spanish influenza is the worst pandemic in history.

Premises

Counter-arguments

WWI could have actually protected thousands of people from the disease. Many men would have built up antibodies from being around the virus for such an extended period while in combat.

Rejecting the premises

[Rejecting P1] The origin is not settled: the trenches are one proposed source among several, and the premise presents a hypothesis as established. The mechanism it describes — mild cases retained at the front, severe cases evacuated — is likewise argued rather than demonstrated. [Rejecting P2] Wartime movement explains reach, which is not what the conclusion needs. Spreading widely is not the same as being the worst, and the position has to be measured against its rivals — plague, smallpox, HIV/AIDS — on deaths, duration and share of population, none of which the premises address. [Rejecting P3] Earlier pandemics were not confined to single countries or continents: plague travelled from Asia across the Middle East and Europe, and smallpox crossed the Atlantic with European contact, so the claim of a first truly global pandemic overstates the contrast.