Will coronavirus destroy the global economy?

The Chinese economy has been affected as it is the epicentre

Question: Will coronavirus destroy the global economy?
Position1 of 4›: The coronavirus is bringing down ill-prepared national economies
Argument‹2 of 2: The Chinese economy has been affected as it is the epicentre

Economic forecasts suggest that at the very least, the Chinese economy will be hit until Q4 2020. Other nations can use its example to safeguard their economies before they are hit as badly.

The argument

The Chinese economy has been significantly affected thus far from the coronavirus outbreak, and the argument begins by establishing how severe the damage at the epicentre is. The virus has significantly slowed economic growth in the country, and production has come to a standstill with factories remaining on lockdown. Small and medium businesses, in particular, are feeling significant impact from coronavirus as people remain indoors rather than going to restaurants or shops — a second channel of harm distinct from the first, since it reaches firms that depend on daily custom rather than on export orders, and such firms typically have the least capacity to wait a downturn out. Having granted the severity of the shock where it originated, the argument then limits how far it travels. It is unlikely that this impact will spread far beyond China, because a slowdown of growth in China is generally expected to be roughly a fifth as serious elsewhere. That proportion is what turns the question from one of direction into one of magnitude: other economies will feel something, but a fifth of a domestic contraction is an order of damage most can absorb without collapsing. The remaining step concerns preparation rather than exposure. Other economies can look to the crisis unfolding in China and use internal safeguards to guard their economies from feeling a similar impact — an advantage that follows simply from being second rather than first, since the epicentre has to improvise while everywhere else can watch, plan and act on what it has seen. A diluted shock met by a forewarned response is what halts coronavirus from causing a full global economic meltdown. What comes down, on this account, are the ill-prepared national economies rather than the global economy as a whole.

Premises

[P1]The coronavirus has significantly slowed China's economy by halting production and reducing consumer activity, hitting small and medium businesses especially hard. [P2] The economic impact of China's slowdown on other countries is typically only about a fifth as severe as it is domestically. [P3] Other economies can observe China's crisis and implement internal safeguards to protect themselves from similar harm. [C] Therefore, while coronavirus is bringing down ill-prepared economies like China's, it is unlikely to cause a full global economic meltdown.

Counter-arguments

It is too late for other countries to safeguard against the economic turmoil that has hit China - the impact has already been felt significantly in other economies. Coronavirus has cause significant upheaval to stock markets globally.

Rejecting the premises

[Rejecting P2] Other economies don't have time to prepare themselves - the economic impact is already on their doorstep.