Leading economists have warned of a 2020 crash for years
Field experts from former UK Prime Minister Gordon Brown, to Bank of England Governor Mark Carney, have long said a global economic crash is on its way.
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The Argument
Even before coronavirus hit, Germany, Japan and the United Kingdom were all on the cusp of recession, with many other economies experiencing significant slowdowns.[1] Global debt had already skyrocketed, with debt to GDP rates being higher than immediately before the 2008 financial crisis.
Growth in 2020 was already forecast to decline significantly.[2] Additionally, even far before the downturn, China had specifically been theorised to be the epicentre of the next financial crisis.[3] A 2020 recession had even been forecast by many.[4]
Coronavirus is simply the catalyst that has sped up economic downturn, rather than having caused it. The economic crash we are experiencing is inevitable.
Counter arguments
Premises
[P1] There were many indicators of an impending economic crisis far before coronavirus became a crisis.
[P2] Coronavirus has not caused global economic downturn - it has simply sped it up.
Rejecting the premises
References
- https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/483899-chinas-coronavirus-economic-cardiac-arrest
- https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2020/01/08/modest-pickup-in-2020-amid-mounting-debt-and-slowing-productivity-growth
- https://www.scmp.com/business/article/2163897/could-china-find-itself-centre-next-financial-crisis-because-its-mounting
- https://qz.com/1787021/the-economic-threats-that-could-cause-a-2020-recession/