The Embargo has achieved nothing

The argument

The Cuban embargo is the longest-running embargo in modern history, and by the standard its own architects set it has not worked. The original aim of the sanctions was to rid the country of its dictatorship. That dictatorship has endured. Worse, by some measures the situation the embargo was meant to improve has deteriorated: the jailing of political dissidents has only increased, surveillance is widespread, and arbitrary arrests are routine. If a policy is judged by whether it achieved its stated purpose, this one has had decades in which to do so and has not. Nor is the failure a matter of needing more time. Reports that the Cuban government is weakening and will fall have been made repeatedly since the 1960s and have never proved to be true. Each generation of policymakers has been able to tell itself that collapse is imminent, and each has been wrong. At some point the repeated prediction becomes evidence against the policy rather than a reason to persist with it. The economic mechanism has failed as thoroughly as the political one. Attempts to deter investment in the country have done nothing: thousands of companies do trade with Cuba, and Cuba has consistently found ways around the embargo. Many nations have traded with Cuba in spite of being US allies, so the measure does not even command the support of the countries closest to the US. Enemies of the US such as Venezuela have gone further and given huge handouts to Cuba, offsetting whatever pressure the sanctions apply. Many American brands have also found their way to Cuba. The conclusion follows from both halves. The embargo has not created regime change, and it has not produced economic isolation either, because the Cubans have found many ways to circumvent trade restrictions. A measure that achieves neither of its purposes has done nothing, and should be repealed.

Premises

Counter-arguments

Cuba may really be on the verge of collapse. Cuba has survived in recent years by allying itself with the Maduro regime in Venezuela who have given handouts of oil to Cuba, which it has then sold for cash. As Venezuela continues to crumble Cuba is in an increasingly desperate situation and will eventually have nowhere else to turn. Although Cuba has found ways around the embargo, economists estimate they have been deprived of billions of dollars in aid and investments from the US. Many important items manufactured in the US have still never found their way to Cuba. The embargo has genuinely damaged the country and its economy. The embargo put an end to Castro's global military ambitions. Although progress has been slow the embargo has worked. When Cuba finally runs out of allies to prop up its crooked regime it will have no choice but to give in to US demands.

Rejecting the premises

[Rejecting P1] The embargo has shrunk the Cuban military.