Lifting the embargo would economically strengthen a dictatorial regime

The argument

Enforcing a trade embargo has weakened the regime by forcing it to isolate, and lifting it would reverse that effect without reaching ordinary Cubans. Trade with Cuba would ultimately enrich only the elites who hold absolute power and will keep the benefits for themselves. The reason is structural rather than incidental: any additional profits made in Cuba will not be given back to the people but will line the pockets of the regime in a state-controlled economy, where the state sits between every transaction and every citizen and decides what reaches them. The record indicates the pressure has worked. The Cuban government has lost $4.5 billion a year in subsidies because of the embargo, which has made the government unpopular and destabilized Fidel Castro and his successors. Regular rioting and popular dissent in Cuba have proved that sanctions have made the government unpopular — not merely poorer, but less secure in its hold over the population, which is the effect the policy was aimed at. The military evidence points the same way. In the 1960s Castro was forced to shrink the size of his military because of the sanctions, which proves they did have an effect on the regime's capacity and not only on its accounts. Prior to the embargo, Castro sent troops around the world to further various revolutionary causes, an activity that required exactly the resources the sanctions removed. Repealing the embargo would only signal that Cuba was free to continue as it is, with the constraint lifted and nothing about the conduct changed. If the embargo were lifted, the dictatorial and oppressive government would be more powerful and have tighter grip on its people.

Premises

Counter-arguments

Claims that the regime has been weakened are false. Cuba is still a one-party state which still persecutes political enemies and seriously restricts freedoms. If anything, the communist regime has become more popular than it would have been due to American sanctions. Due to the embargo, all the problems Cuba has are blamed on US. If the embargo was lifted the government would be held accountable. Economic sanctions have not harmed the government, they have mostly harmed ordinary people. Cuba has suffered from a lack of food and medical equipment. If the embargo were lifted essential supplies would find their way back to the people even if the government skims some of the profits made in any trade deals. The embargo does more harm to ordinary people than it does to the regime. It has not destabilized the government enough to end one-party rule or reduce persecution. The government would be more unpopular if the embargo were lifted.

Rejecting the premises

[Rejecting P1] The government has not been crippled enough to create a regime change or change the government's behavior. [Rejecting P2] Life-saving medical equipment and food would be the main benefits of ending the embargo. Both of these things would help ordinary people, not the government.