The EU will integrate further, but remain a membership organisation
EU integration will increase, but not to the point of completely pooled sovereignty.
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The Argument
The last thirty years offer a clear blueprint for where the EU will be in the next thirty years.
With a commitment to ever closer political and economic union, this will naturally lead to a future where member states pool resources and sovereignty in more areas and further power is given to EU’s institutions, including the Commission and EU Parliament. However, it will not lead to the creation of a 'United States of Europe', as member states will continue to make policy through consensus in the EU Council of Ministers.
Counter arguments
The European Union faces a litany of challenges including the Eurozone crisis, the migration crisis, Britain's exit, and rising levels of populism in individual EU Member States. While taken individually the European Union might survive, but taken together the European Union's future looks bleak with it likely to break up.
Its inevitable decline will come about as a result of increasing disagreement amongst Member States from the different geographic regions of Europe, who ultimately have different priorities and interests.
Premises
[P1] As has happened in the past, the EU will steadily pool more resources and sovereignty.
[P2] However, the decision mechanisms will remain the same instead of being completely pooled.
Rejecting the premises
[Rejecting P1] The problems facing the EU are too great for it to simply continue on as it has historically.