The EU will become a loose federation of member states

The argument

Rising populist movements across European countries and increased scepticism over the need for further integration make it likely that EU member states will seek a loosening of membership rules towards a federation of some kind. Individual member states will not seek to exit the EU recognising the huge economic and political cost this would incur. Instead, they are likely to seek a looser arrangement which gives more power to the governments of member states in the EU Council of Ministers and weakens the influence of the EU Parliament and the EU Commission.

Premises

Counter-arguments

The European Union faces a litany of challenges including the Eurozone crisis, the migration crisis, Britain's exit, and rising levels of populism in individual EU Member States. While taken individually the European Union might survive, but taken together the European Union's future looks bleak with it likely to break up. Its inevitable decline will come about as a result of increasing disagreement amongst Member States from the different geographic regions of Europe, who ultimately have different priorities and interests.

Rejecting the premises

[Rejecting P2] The challenges the EU faces are too great for it to continue to exist at all.