The European Union will break up

The argument

The European Union faces a litany of challenges including the Eurozone crisis, the migration crisis, Britain's exit, and rising levels of populism in individual EU Member States. While taken individually the European Union might survive, but taken together the European Union's future looks bleak with it likely to break up. Its inevitable decline will come about as a result of increasing disagreement amongst Member States from the different geographic regions of Europe, who ultimately have different priorities and interests. This is particularly evident in the current debate surrounding the EU's multi-year budget, where there are divisions between Member States from Eastern Europe and Member States from Northern Europe over the level of spending.

Premises

Counter-arguments

Increasingly stuck between two global super-powers in the USA and China, European countries will continue to support the existence of the European Union as a counter-balance. Recognising that as individual states they cannot compete alone, as well as the economic and political cost they would incur if the European Union collapsed, Member States will elect to pool sovereignty where necessary.

Rejecting the premises

[Rejecting P1] It can overcome these challenges and will elect to remain united to do so; they are stronger together.