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People believe in conspiracy theories because they distrust the government
Governmental distrust is on the rise, meaning that people are more likely to subscribe to beliefs that characterise it as an evil entity.
The argument
While in the 60s roughly 77% of Americans trusted their governments, this has dramatically fallen to 19%. Governmental distrust rising means that people are increasingly inclined to believe conspiracy theories that portray the government as an evil actor. While the perpetrator of conspiracy theories used to generally be groups of people (E.g. Jewish people, the Freemasons), the government is increasingly characterised as the perpetrator of conspiracies. People who distrust the government have plenty of reasons to feel that their government could be participating in a conspiracy. Beyond this, it is easy to then continue to subscribe to conspiracy theories.
Premises
Counter-arguments
Critics reply that distrust may be as much a consequence of conspiracy belief as a cause, and that declining trust cannot by itself explain who believes, since most people who distrust government do not adopt conspiracy theories. Research points to additional drivers — psychological needs for certainty and control, social identity, and cognitive biases — that better distinguish believers from mere sceptics. Falling trust may set the stage, they argue, but it is not sufficient, so distrust alone does not explain belief in conspiracy theories.
Rejecting the premises
[Rejecting P1] A decline in aggregate trust is compatible with most distrustful people rejecting conspiracy theories, so falling trust does not by itself pick out who believes. [Rejecting P2] Viewing government as a malicious actor may be an effect of conspiracy thinking as much as a cause, so the direction of the relationship is unclear. [Rejecting C] Because distrust is widespread but conspiracy belief is not, distrust is at most a contributing condition, not a sufficient explanation.