- Question
- Where is Kim Jong-un?
- Position‹4 of 4
- Kim Jong-un is leading the party as normal
- Argument1 of 3›
South Korea intelligence suggests he remains in charge
South Korean intelligence sources suggest that there is nothing extraordinary about his absence and that the leader remains at the helm.
The argument
Kim Jong-Un did not have surgery during his absence. In fact, there was nothing out of the ordinary about his short hiatus at all. South Korean intelligence officials wholeheartedly dismissed rumors that anything odd happened with Kim Jong-Un, stating that there was "nothing unusual" about the North Korean leader and his health. Since South Korea has many sources with which to monitor its northern neighbor, we can trust that its information is valid.
Premises
Counter-arguments
One crucial piece of information that is missing from South Korea's statements is any explanation about why Kim Jong-Un was absent in the first place. If there was truly nothing unusual about the situation, then South Korean intelligence should have been able to explain in more detail. Another complicating factor is that it is very uncommon for South Korea to issue any statements about the goings-on in North Korea, making their already scant report seem potentially suspicious.
Rejecting the premises
[Rejecting P1] The statement is thinner than the premise treats it as being: it denies that anything unusual occurred without offering any account of why the leader was absent in the first place, so it leaves the fact that prompted the question unexplained. [Rejecting P2] Extensive monitoring capacity cuts both ways in the counter's reading — if Seoul's sources were as good as the premise claims, a fuller explanation should have been available, and the rarity of any South Korean comment on North Korean affairs makes a brief, unelaborated denial harder rather than easier to take at face value.