Encyclopedia of Opinion
Question
What are the views on the US - China trade war?
Position8 of 8
The trade war is good for the world
Argument

The trade war improves China's economic practices

China engages in unfair economic practices. The trade war serves as a deterrent because it hurts the Chinese economy. China will want to change its practices to stop the current harm and prevent future harm to their economy.

The argument

Proponents of the trade war start from the claim that China engages in unfair economic practices, and that these practices sit on a spectrum which it is helpful to disambiguate. At one end are actions which are generally considered illegal; these include the outright theft of intellectual property, as with Chinese military officers hacking into American firms in 2014. In the middle sit actions that are considered unfair, if not strictly illegal, such as demanding that foreign firms gift technology in exchange for market access, or historically artificially devaluing its currency. At the other end are actions which represent intense forms of competition that are entirely legal. The distinction matters to the argument, because the case being made is not that China competes hard; it is that some of how it competes falls outside the rules everyone else is expected to observe. The U.S. hopes to dissuade China from engaging in the unfair practices in that range, and the mechanism proponents identify runs from economic pressure to political pressure. Waging the trade war against China will squeeze Chinese firms, hurting their profit line. In turn, this has political ramifications for the Chinese government, because the cost of the practices begins to be borne by the state that tolerates them rather than only by the foreign firms they disadvantage. Consequently, on this account, China will be deterred from engaging in unfair practices in the future, stepping in line with established international norms of commerce. The final step of the argument is that this outcome is not merely an American gain. Fair competition from China is better for the world. It allows overseas businesses access to Chinese markets on better terms and prevents them from being unfairly out-competed on the global stage.

Context

The rise of the Chinese economy has fueled fears of unfair competitive practices that threaten businesses abroad; this is the premise of President Trump’s rhetoric behind the trade war. By punishing these practices, the United States hopes to force China to abandon them.

Premises

[P1]China engages in unfair economic practices ranging from illegal intellectual-property theft to coerced technology transfer and currency manipulation. [P2] The trade war squeezes Chinese firms' profits, creating political pressure that deters China from such practices and pushes it to step in line with established international norms of commerce. [C] Therefore, by forcing fairer competition that gives overseas businesses better access and protection, the trade war is good for the world.

Counter-arguments

This argument makes two key assumptions. The first is that Chinese firms will be significantly hurt by the trade war. This is not true if China wins the trade war. Suppose for the sake of argument that Chinese firms will be significantly hurt by the trade war, forcing a conciliatory stance with the United States. Even if that is true, the second assumption is that China will improve its economic practices more broadly. This may not be the case. At best, China might negotiate a deal with the U.S. to treat U.S. firms fairly. Other nations lack the leverage to conduct the same punitive trade war with China.

Rejecting the premises

[Rejecting P1] The damage to the Chinese economy may not be sufficient; this depends on the outcome of the trade war. [Rejecting P2] China may respond to the trade war by rolling back unfair economic practices against the United States, but not more generally.