What are the views on the US - China trade war?

Rising prices damage consumers and the economy

Question: What are the views on the US - China trade war?
Position‹6 of 8›: The trade war is bad for China
Argument1 of 2›: Rising prices damage consumers and the economy

An inevitable result of the trade war is increased tariffs on necessary consumer goods such as food. This makes these goods more expensive for consumers. Making life harder for its citizens is bad for China.

The argument

The mechanism this argument describes is escalation without an exit. The China and US trade war creates an inevitable rise in tariffs placed upon imports from both countries: the US places a tariff on Chinese goods, China responds with a tariff on US goods, the US must respond again, and the cycle relaunches. Because each round is a reply to the last, neither side can stop unilaterally without appearing to concede, and the result is a vicious cycle of continually increasing prices for Chinese and American consumers and businesses alike. The costs land domestically even though the measures are aimed abroad — the tariff is paid on goods crossing the border, and the price reaches the people buying them. This is particularly bad for China, the argument holds, because of what is in the basket. Some of the imports whose prices are rising are food: fruit, vegetables, meat — especially pork — and grains. In April 2019 the price of pork was up 14% and broader food prices were up 6.1% compared with the year before. Food is the category households cannot substitute away from or postpone, so an increase there is absorbed by cutting spending elsewhere. That is why the argument moves from prices to the wider economy: rising prices can impact consumer spending, which could cause an even bigger problem for China's economy than the tariffs themselves. The final step is about politics overriding economics. In the event of an escalating and unchecked trade war, economic realities for consumers might be put on the backburner while China is forced to pursue a political show of strength. Once the dispute becomes a matter of national standing, the ordinary corrective — a government responding to the cost its own consumers are bearing — stops operating, and the damage to consumers and the economy is allowed to continue.

Context

The tariffs levied on China span a huge range of agricultural, industrial, energy, and technology fields. Their impact on the Chinese economy will be large.

Premises

[P1]The trade war triggers a retaliatory cycle of tariffs that continually raises prices for consumers and businesses in both China and the US. [P2] This especially hurts China because rising food prices—pork up 14% and broader food up 6.1% year-on-year in April 2019—can depress consumer spending and threaten the wider economy. [C] Because rising prices damage consumers and the economy, the trade war is bad for China.

Counter-arguments

The counter-tariffs that China levies will be calculated to be as harmless to the Chinese economy as possible. Furthermore, China is a net exporter rather than importer to the United States, so it will not be as impacted by consumer prices increasing as the U.S. will be. Even in the worst-case scenario, China can branch out to sources for imported goods.

Rejecting the premises

[Rejecting P2] China can raise tariffs surgically, avoiding the most crucial arteries of the Chinese import economy.