What are the views on the US - China trade war?

China is more likely to win the trade war

Question: What are the views on the US - China trade war?
Position‹5 of 8›: The trade war is good for China
Argument‹2 of 2: China is more likely to win the trade war

China can win this war. It can last longer because China’s economy has more room to maneuver than the United States economy. Also, China can cause more damage to the U.S. by devaluing U.S. debt.

The argument

China is an economy whose growth far outpaces that of the United States and most of the world in general. Regardless of any tit-for-tat tariffs, this leaves them with more space to maneuver and adjust. China also has an expanded arsenal of tools to pressure the United States. The way the trade war has proceeded so far has been through a tit-for-tat increase of tariffs. Given that the United States imports more Chinese goods than China imports U.S. goods, the scope of the damage that the U.S. can do is greater. However, China has another source of leverage. It is the single largest holder of American debt. China always has the nuclear option of selling that debt to tank bond values. On the less extreme side of the scale, simply halting the purchase of debt could similarly disrupt the value of U.S. bonds. This attack on U.S. bonds would certainly harm China, but the damage to the U.S. (and the rest of the world) would probably be greater. Additionally, China can also further devalue its currency. This lowers the price of its exports which gives them a more competitive advantage. This advantage can offset the effect of the tariffs. Regardless of the methods they choose, China has the tools to do more damage to the U.S. economy before its own economic bleeding becomes too severe.

Context

This trade war will cause short term damage to both China and the United States. Whether the trade war benefits China long-term is dependent on the likelihood of it winning the war. If China can win and get important concessions out of the U.S., this might be a net good.

Premises

[P1]China's growth far outpaces the US and most of the world, giving it more room to maneuver and adjust despite tit-for-tat tariffs. [P2] It also holds extra leverage as the single largest holder of US debt — able to dump or stop buying US bonds — and can devalue its currency to cheapen exports and offset tariffs, so it can inflict more damage on the US before its own bleeding becomes severe. [C] Therefore China is more likely to win the trade war, which is why the trade war is good for China.

Counter-arguments

This argument overestimates both China's willingness to engage in such economic warfare and the impact that it would have on the United States. Even if China would consider these actions, any devaluation of U.S. debt would be extremely damaging for China and unsustainable in the long run. Aggressive currency devaluation, on the other hand, would simply serve to strengthen the resolve to continue the trade war, given that such perceived 'dirty play' is a large part of its rationale. Therefore, the U.S. has the defining advantage in this trade war.

Rejecting the premises

[Rejecting P1] China is not likely to engage in such economic warfare. [Rejecting P2] Any devaluation of U.S. debt would be extremely damaging for China.