- Position‹3 of 8›
- The trade war is good for the United States
- Argument1 of 2›
The U.S. will win
The U.S. will win the trade war because it has more leverage against China. The U.S. buys more from China than vice versa, which means it has more imports to place tariffs on and can hurt China’s economy more.
The argument
The U.S. is likely to win the trade war, proponents argue, which means it can protect jobs and force China to stop abusing it via China's unfair trade policy. The case rests on structural position rather than on resolve: who is exposed to whom, and by how much. The starting point is the imbalance itself, read as an asset rather than a weakness. The U.S. has a significant trade deficit with China, meaning that the U.S. buys more items from China than China does from the United States, and with the surplus of goods in the world, the buyer has more power. A seller in a crowded market needs the customer more than the customer needs any particular seller, so a country that buys more than it sells holds the stronger hand when the relationship is disrupted. That translates directly into the arithmetic of tariffs. Because it imports more, there are more imports that the U.S. is able to place tariffs on, and China's economy is more vulnerable than the United States'. If the U.S. tariffed all Chinese imports, the effect on China's economy would be far more damaging than if China tariffed all the U.S. products it imports. The two sides are not playing the same game, since one has more targets available and less to lose. The conclusion follows from where escalation ends rather than from where it begins. If they continue in a tit for tat exchange, eventually China will experience a huge economic shock and damage. Proponents argue that this asymmetry is visible to both parties, which is what converts it into leverage: the U.S. has more leverage in forcing concessions from China and can ultimately get what it wants, as China would never follow the war through to this conclusion.
Premises
Counter-arguments
While the U.S. can place tariffs on more imports, China still has more leverage. China can sell U.S. bonds to tank their value and/or further devalue its currency. This lowers the price of its exports which gives them a more competitive advantage. Since China has more leverage, it is more likely to win the trade war.
Rejecting the premises
[Rejecting P3] China has more leverage because China can devalue its currency and/or U.S. bonds.