Will the future of transportation be electric?

The trend toward green mobility will make electric cars a popular transport

Question: Will the future of transportation be electric?
Position1 of 3›: Yes, the market and governments will push for electric transportation
Argument: The trend toward green mobility will make electric cars a popular transport

As the threats of global warming become more apparent, investment is turning towards green technologies for solutions. This is paving the way for growth in electric cars which provide a sustainable alternative to their carbon-emitting predecessor.

The argument

Sales and production of electric vehicles have been increasing, and many governments are looking to electric vehicles as the future of their transportation and have shown themselves willing to invest in that future. Already, governments have made pledges to support electric vehicles. Most countries in Western Europe, as well as India, Japan, Korea, and some US states, have set targets ranging from only selling electric cars by 2030 to just increasing electric car sales. To accomplish this, countries will have to invest in infrastructure to charge electric vehicles, and some will have to find ways to encourage consumers to buy electric vehicles. Many countries provide incentives for purchasing and manufacturing electric vehicles. With governments investing in electric vehicles and altering their policies to support electric vehicles, it is only a matter of time before the number of electric vehicles on the road surpasses traditional vehicles.

Premises

[P1]Sales and production of electric vehicles are rising, and many governments treat them as the future of transportation. [P2] Countries across Western Europe, plus India, Japan, Korea, and some US states, have set targets and offer incentives that commit them to electric vehicles and the infrastructure to support them. [P3] With both the market and governments pushing in this direction, it is only a matter of time before electric vehicles outnumber traditional ones. [C] Therefore, the trend toward green mobility means the market and governments will push transportation to be electric.

Counter-arguments

Though the price of electric vehicles has decreased, it is still greater than what many people can afford. Furthermore, though electric vehicle sales have increased, they still do not make up a large part of global car sales. In the United States, electric vehicles were around two percent of all new car sales in 2018, suggesting there is not a major push by the market for electric cars.

Rejecting the premises

[Rejecting P1] Rising sales from a small base measure growth rather than displacement, and the premise does not say what share of the fleet is involved. Governments treating a technology as the future is a statement of policy preference, not evidence about outcomes. [Rejecting P2] Targets are pledges by governments that do not bind their successors, and several of the dates cited have since been moved: phase-out deadlines have been delayed or softened in more than one of the countries the argument names, generally under pressure from cost, charging infrastructure and industry lobbying. Purchase incentives have similarly been reduced or withdrawn once budgets tightened. [Rejecting P3] The market and government are not pushing in the same direction as cleanly as the premise assumes. The counter-argument on record notes the price gap, and the constraints the argument does not address — charging availability for households without off-street parking, and the supply of lithium, nickel and cobalt — bear on how far and how fast the transition runs. [Rejecting C] 'Only a matter of time' also makes the claim unfalsifiable, since any pace of adoption confirms it. The rival positions concern whether electrification reaches the scale claimed and whether other technologies take a share, neither of which a statement about eventuality addresses.