Encyclopedia of Opinion
Question
Will Donald Trump concede the 2020 Presidential election to Joe Biden?
Position1 of 3›
Yes, he will concede the election
Argument1 of 3›

He's only pretending to think he won the election to delegitimize Biden's win

Trump and his top advisors are fully aware that Joe Biden won the election. However, they strategically plan on continuing claims of voter fraud to weaken Biden's presidency and draw from his influence in the White House.

The argument

First, there is no legal basis for voter fraud or any sort of major illegitimate voting that could have impacted the outcome of the Presidential election. In multiple lawsuits, judges have fully dismissed "baseless" claims of voter fraud. Additionally, any possible recounts have such a large margin that the outcome of Joe Biden as President is likely to remain the same. This means that top Trump advisors must reasonably understand that Trump claiming the Presidency is a flat-out lie. However, while he ultimately is going to have to concede the election, Trump's rhetoric is causing a national partisan divide, which will draw power away from Biden's goal of unifying the country and dampen his ability to create any meaningful national reforms, as nearly half of the American public will view him as an "illegitimate President."

Premises

[P1]Courts have dismissed voter fraud claims as baseless and recount margins are too large to alter the outcome, so Trump's team knows he actually lost. [P2] By publicly refusing to acknowledge the loss, Trump fuels a partisan narrative that paints Biden as illegitimate and hampers his ability to govern. [P3] Once that delegitimizing effect is secured, Trump has no further reason to hold out and will ultimately concede. [C] Therefore, Trump will concede the election, but only after using false claims of fraud to undermine Biden's presidency.

Counter-arguments

The opposing position — that Trump would not concede — was borne out by events. He issued no formal concession, pressed fraud claims past state certification, and the efforts culminating on January 6 showed that the 'delegitimize, then concede' prediction underestimated his willingness to contest the outcome outright. The argument's key assumption, that advisors' private knowledge of the loss would compel a rational exit, did not hold; refusing to acknowledge defeat proved not to be a temporary tactic but an enduring stance.

Rejecting the premises

[Rejecting P1] Courts dismissing the claims did not lead Trump to acknowledge the loss; he pressed the fraud narrative through certification, so his team's private knowledge of defeat did not produce a concession. [Rejecting P2] The delegitimizing rhetoric was not a prelude to conceding but continued indefinitely, culminating in attempts to overturn the result. [Rejecting P3] The premise that he had 'no further reason to hold out' misjudged the incentives; no formal concession followed. [Rejecting C] The prediction that he would ultimately concede was not borne out by events.