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- Yes, he will concede the election
None of Donald Trump's lawsuits have been successful. Several judges issued scathing statements in response to lawsuits which were wildly speculative and lacking in any evidence.
The argument
In Pennsylvania, the Trump campaign is filing a lawsuit that people were not allowed to watch ballot counting, but admitted in court that there were a "non-zero" number of spectators. Even if late-arriving ballots were thrown out, Biden would still have an overwhelming lead. In Arizona, judges threw out accusations of "overvotes," or mistakes on the ballot because of Sharpie, because there were only 180 cases, those voters were given the chance to fix their ballots, and that's not enough to tip the election. In Michigan, judges rejected accusations that ballot counters were "fixing votes." In Nevada, judges dismissed the accusation that vote-counting machines were not working, because there was no evidence. In the Georgia lawsuit, there was no evidence that the ballots counted arrived late. Also, Rudy Giuliani admitted before a U.S. district judge, “This is not a fraud case.”
Premises
Counter-arguments
Those who predicted Trump would not concede argued that the legal merits were beside the point: conceding is a political and personal choice, not a legal obligation, and Trump had signalled for months that he would reject an unfavourable result regardless of the courts. The baselessness of the lawsuits, on this view, made continued denial more likely rather than less, since a candidate willing to file meritless suits was unlikely to be moved by their failure. In the event Trump never issued a formal concession, disputed the result through the January 6th Capitol riot, and left office without conceding — which the sibling positions cite as vindication. That the suits lacked merit shows they would fail in court, not that Trump would accept defeat.
Rejecting the premises
[Rejecting P1] The legal weakness of the lawsuits shows they would fail in court, but conceding is a political choice rather than a legal obligation, so their failure does not entail that Trump would concede. [Rejecting C] In the event Trump never formally conceded and contested the result up to and beyond January 6th, so the baselessness of his suits did not produce a concession.