What are the implications of Kanye West running for President?

Kanye West appeals to young, black Democrats

Question: What are the implications of Kanye West running for President?
Position1 of 3›: Kanye West will split the Democrat vote
Argument‹2 of 2: Kanye West appeals to young, black Democrats

Polling suggests Kanye is more popular with Democrats than Republicans.

The argument

In 2018, Ye launched his "Blexit" merchandise range. The term stands for the "black exit" campaign, which calls for black Democrats to leave the party. The rapper has been very vocal in his beliefs that Democrats "brainwash" black people. In a 2019 radio interview West described his views in more detail: "We’re [black Americans] brainwashed out here, bro. Come on, man. This is a free man talking. Democrats had us voting [for] Democrats with food stamps for years. What are you talking about? Guns in the Eighties, taking the fathers out the home, Plan B, lowering our votes, making us abort our children...Thou shall not kill." Polling statistics suggest that West's battle for the black vote may be working. A 2015 YouGov/Huffington Post poll of US adults showed that 25% of black Americans said they would consider voting for him. This was skewed towards Democrats, with 17% favourability amongst Democrats compared to 11% among Republicans.

Context

Kanye has been very vocal in denouncing the Democrats as a party that does not act in black interests.

Premises

[P1]Kanye West has campaigned for black Democrats to leave the party, launching 'Blexit' and calling the Democrats' hold on black voters 'brainwashing'. [P2] Polling shows a quarter of black Americans would consider voting for him, with higher favourability among Democrats than Republicans. [P3] Drawing away black Democratic voters would pull support from the Democratic candidate. [C] Therefore, because Kanye West appeals to young black Democrats, his run will split the Democrat vote.

Counter-arguments

Lots has changed since the 2015 YouGov/Huffington Post poll, which suggested West had a potential audience in black Democrats. As he has become increasingly reactionary, and unpredictable, his popularity has waned. This is especially true amongst Democrats who view his praise of President Trump with suspicion. More recent polls suggest that West is very unpopular with Democrat voters. A 2018 CNN poll found that 12% of Democrats viewed him favourably, compared to 67% who were unimpressed. Meanwhile, Republicans were evenly split at 35% to 35%.

Rejecting the premises

[Rejecting P2] Black voters are more inclined to vote for one of the major parties