Brexit showed the dangers of major change by referendum

The argument

Proponents of this position argue that without all the necessary information about exactly how reunification would be implemented, a referendum would be risky — and that Brexit is the available demonstration of what that risk looks like. In the case of Brexit, holding a referendum before a deal had been reached meant that voters were unaware of the difficulties of the Irish border issue and often imagined a deal that secured all of the benefits of leaving the EU without any of the drawbacks. A vote taken before terms exist is not a vote on a proposal; it is a vote on whatever each voter pictures, and those pictures need not be compatible with one another or with anything actually achievable. The referendum also showed that the backing of a simple majority is not a conclusive enough mandate for extreme constitutional change. Changes of that kind are difficult or impossible to undo, so a margin that would be unremarkable in an ordinary election commits a country permanently on the strength of a narrow and temporary preference. Compounding this, people will vote on the basis of popular, eye-catching slogans and stories, even if they are not necessarily true. This leaves referenda vulnerable to misinformation campaigns, which could have catastrophic effects in the case of an Irish question. The application to a united Ireland follows the same pattern with higher stakes. In a United Ireland referendum, voters would imagine their preferred version of a United Ireland rather than the reality and would fail to consider the difficulties of transition — the constitutional, financial and security arrangements that would have to be settled after the vote rather than before it. Given the history of Northern Ireland, this could create much greater chaos than Brexit. Because Brexit showed the dangers of major change by referendum in exactly this way, Northern Ireland should remain part of the United Kingdom.

Context

The Good Friday Agreement says a united Ireland must happen through a referendum, but if Brexit has taught us any lesson, it should be that a referendum can be a poor way to make major decisions.

Premises

Counter-arguments

Lessons can be learned from the Brexit referendum and applied to a referendum on Northern Ireland’s future. Rather than voting first and then negotiating a deal, the British and Irish governments, alongside Northern Irish representatives from each community, could work out a full transitional arrangement that would be put in place in the event of a united Ireland. This can then be published before citizens vote, allowing them to see exactly what they are voting for. In addition, while many may be upset if a narrow majority votes in favour of a united Ireland, this would still be preferable to ignoring the views of the majority entirely. And as the question is mainly an emotional issue for many people on both sides of the debate, the dangers of misinformation are not as strong as they were over Brexit.

Rejecting the premises

[Rejecting P1] The Brexit referendum's problems were self-contained and don't apply to other referenda