All of Ireland would be stronger as part of the UK

The argument

Reunification with the Republic of Ireland, especially one in the foreseeable future, creates an unstable environment for Irish citizens and raises numerous questions in the process. For example, will residents of Northern Ireland be able to claim both British and Irish nationality? Will a united state entail transitioning Northern Ireland to fit under the Republic of Ireland's present structure or will such a plan resemble a federal system? Such questions have yet to be answered. And until feasible and beneficial solutions have been deciphered, it is within Northern Ireland's interest to remain in a stronger position as part of the United Kingdom. Economically, the Republic of Ireland is completely ill-equipped to handle the financial costs of maintaining Northern Ireland— the United Kingdom's poorest region. Northern Ireland's own declining economy is attributed to the province's distance from its markets and sources of raw materials, as well as high transportation costs. However, in remaining part of the United Kingdom, these problems are easily remedied. And as a result, Northern Ireland easily benefits from both the financial support provided by the United Kingdom, and the UK's much larger economy; especially as about 74 percent of Northern Ireland's imports and 82 percent of their exports involve trade with the rest of the UK. Thus, it will not be constructive to leave a desirable trade position with the UK for a future that will see an even greater demise of Northern Ireland's economy.

Premises

Counter-arguments

Northern Ireland would not be stronger as part of the United Kingdom. Instead, Northern Ireland will suffer the greatest negative economic impact as a direct result of Britain's adoption of Brexit. Specifically, this will occur given Northern Ireland's considerably closer economic relationship with the EU, and particularly the Republic of Ireland, compared with any other part of the United Kingdom. While less than 50 percent of UK merchandise exports are destined for the EU, about 60 percent of Northern Ireland’s exports are to the EU, and of that more than half go to Ireland. Thus, even though a united Ireland— whether that be with the UK or the Republic of Ireland— is largely a political issue, but one with dangerously serious economic implications for Northern Ireland.

Rejecting the premises

[Rejecting P1] Unanswered questions are a reason for careful planning, not a reason against a course of action. Every constitutional change begins with them, and the Good Friday Agreement already specifies the mechanism — concurrent referendums north and south — by which the question would be settled. [Rejecting P2] Both questions raised have answers. People born in Northern Ireland may already hold British or Irish citizenship or both under the Agreement, and the structure of any united state is a matter that has been the subject of published work rather than an unimaginable unknown; the argument treats settled and open questions alike as evidence of chaos. [Rejecting P3] "Stability favours the existing arrangement" is a general principle that would preserve any status quo — and the position it supports is not the status quo at all, since uniting Ireland within the United Kingdom would require the Republic to surrender its independence, which the argument nowhere addresses. The counter-argument's point about Northern Ireland's post-Brexit trade exposure also shows that the current arrangement carries instability of its own.