The Northern Irish people want to be part of the UK

The argument

Supporters of this position begin from what they describe as a cardinal principle of international law: that the political will of the inhabitants of a territory should be the key determinant of that territory's statehood. On this view the question of a united Ireland is not settled by history, by geography or by the preferences of any neighbouring state, but by what the people who actually live in Northern Ireland want. Constitutional change imposed against that will would be illegitimate however it was justified. Applying the principle, proponents point to two kinds of evidence. The first is demographic: they argue that the available data suggest Protestants and those of British background still outnumber Catholics and those of Irish background within Northern Ireland. The second is electoral: they hold that elections consistently return more support for unionist parties and candidates than for nationalists. The two are treated as mutually reinforcing, with the demographic balance explaining the electoral one, so that what is revealed at the ballot box is said to be a settled majority preference rather than a passing mood. From this the argument draws its conclusion. If the inhabitants' will is decisive, and if that will is expressed in repeated votes for parties committed to the union, then the Northern Irish people want to be part of the United Kingdom. Removing them from it would, on this reasoning, be both undemocratic and a denial of their right to self-determination, the very right that advocates of a united Ireland themselves invoke. Supporters therefore present their case as the consistent application of a principle both sides accept rather than a rejection of it. Both the demographic and the electoral premises are empirical claims about a changing population, and the argument's force depends on their remaining accurate.

Context

The people of Northern Ireland, like all people, have a right to self-determination.

Premises

Counter-arguments

Northern Ireland was a gerrymandered territory which was demographically engineered to create a unionist majority. Unlike an area with a recognised culture and history dating back before 1921 such as Ulster, Northern Ireland’s borders were drawn up so as to guarantee support for unionism in the region for as long as possible. While self-determination is important, it should only apply to areas that were not created in such an arbitrary way. To create a territory with the specific purpose of it including a majority for one political view is gerrymandering and if this is allowed, any number of small communities should exercise their own right to self-determination.

Rejecting the premises

[Rejecting P1] As a gerrymandered territory, Northern Ireland does not have the right to self-determination