Infections will be insignificant in number

The argument

A recent study from the MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis at Imperial College London shows that, despite countries easing lockdowns and re-opening, the rates of infection have been insignificant. Samir Bhatt, a co-author of the report and an infectious disease epidemiologist at Imperial College London, said this data can be attested to the global population's increasing willingness to implement social distancing and preventative measures into their daily lives. The use of face masks has been proven to reduce the spread of Covid-19, and the global population has shown increased compliance in using them. According to an ongoing study by YouGov, a vast majority of the population in most countries are wearing masks, including 76% in the U.S., 86% in France, and 89% in Spain. This is in stark contrast to data from April, which shows less than 50% of people in most countries wearing masks. The UK, for example, had 10% of respondents say they were wearing masks in April. That number has since jumped to 76%. If states continue to monitor transmission but ease lockdown restrictions, cases will not make the jump that so many fear. However, lockdown measures cannot be seen as a one-time thing. Lockdowns may continue over the next year, possibly even two. But, the general public is taking the pandemic more seriously than in the past, which would make lockdowns less lengthy and fewer in number, according to several studies that map the possible trends of the virus. While social distancing measures and lockdowns may persist long after January, the global pandemic will be less extreme. The fear associated with the pandemic, the skyrocketing rates of infection and deaths, and the panic that those bring to society will be nullified.

Premises

Counter-arguments

It is naive to assume that people will continue to follow strict social distancing guidelines on their own, if not mandated by the state. A possible reason for the sharp uptick in mask compliance in many countries is nationwide mask mandates, like we've seen in the UK, France, and Spain. Without universal and overwhelming compliance, which can really only be done through strict enforcement, the pandemic will continue to persist long after January, and the numbers will continue to rise at an alarming rate.

Rejecting the premises

[Rejecting P1] A finding that rates stayed low during a particular period describes that period rather than forecasting the next, and the premise converts a snapshot into a trajectory. The attribution to public willingness is also the author's interpretation, with seasonality, testing capacity and the measures still in force left unseparated. [Rejecting P2] The mask figures record compliance at a moment, and the counter identifies the likely cause the premise omits — mandates in the very countries cited — which makes the behaviour depend on the restrictions the argument proposes easing. The conclusion also does not follow: the argument concedes lockdowns may continue for another year or two, which is not the pandemic ending within six months.