When will coronavirus end?

This is not the first time human coronaviruses have emerged

Question: When will coronavirus end?
Position‹4 of 4: The coronavirus pandemic may never end
Argument‹3 of 5›: This is not the first time human coronaviruses have emerged

Scientists first identified a human coronavirus in 1965. Since then, there have been several small outbreaks. Since coronavirus outbreaks have happened a few times throughout history, they will more likely continue to happen in the future.

The argument

Coronaviruses have emerged a long time ago and never disappeared, and the length of that record is what makes the end of this pandemic uncertain. Scientists discovered the first coronavirus in 1965 when they cultivated it from a boy with a cold. Then, researchers started to study the virus. As these viruses continued to spread and increase in number and typology, scientists categorized them into a group of viruses known as Coronaviruses — a category that had to be created precisely because new members kept appearing. The first discovery of coronaviruses happened more than 50 years ago and they have never disappeared since then. Most likely, they won't end in the future as well. The outbreak record points the same way. The first outbreak of coronaviruses occurred in 2002. SARS, a closely related virus, emerged in Southern China and infected more than 8,000 people. People were quick to contain the virus through strict quarantine rules and contact tracing, and that containment is why SARS is remembered as an episode rather than an era. The comparison with the present outbreak is unfavourable on both of the counts that made containment possible. COVID-19 is more transmissible than 2002-SARS, so the same measures intercept a smaller share of transmission, and it spreads asymptomatically, so the people spreading it cannot be identified by their symptoms. This makes it more difficult to control than the 2002 virus. Scientists identified various coronaviruses after 2002, so neither the family nor the pattern of outbreaks stopped there. COVID-19 is not the first global outbreak, and future outbreaks are likely to happen following the historic trend of coronavirus outbreaks.

Premises

[P1]Coronaviruses were first discovered over 50 years ago, in 1965, and have never disappeared since. [P2] SARS emerged in 2002 and was contained, but COVID-19 is more transmissible and spreads asymptomatically, making it harder to control. [P3] Following this historic trend, COVID-19 is not the first coronavirus outbreak and future ones are likely. [C] Therefore, because this is not the first time human coronaviruses have emerged, the coronavirus pandemic may never truly end.

Counter-arguments

The outbreak may or may not end depending on the evolution of the virus and human response to it. If the rate of the virus mutation is slow, it might be possible to contain it. If governments establish rigorous policies and people follow orders, the world may succeed in containing the virus. For example, Southern China was able to contain a small coronavirus outbreak in 2002.

Rejecting the premises

[Rejecting P1] That a family of viruses stays in circulation is not the same as a pandemic continuing. The coronaviruses discovered decades ago are endemic, which is precisely the condition under which a pandemic is said to have ended. [Rejecting P2] The SARS comparison cuts against the argument: it names an outbreak in the same family that was contained, which shows emergence does not entail permanence. [Rejecting P3] The likelihood of future outbreaks is a claim about future viruses, and the conclusion needs a claim about this one. As the counter-argument notes, how this pandemic ends turns on mutation rate and on policy and behaviour, none of which the premises address.