When will coronavirus end?

A safe vaccine will not be available until mid-late 2021

Question: When will coronavirus end?
Position‹3 of 4›: The coronavirus pandemic won't end until at least July 2022 (2 years)
Argument‹2 of 4›: A safe vaccine will not be available until mid-late 2021

Even though epidemiologists are working as fast as possible to produce a vaccine, a safe and effective vaccine will not begin to be distributed until middle to late 2021. It won't be immediately available and accessible to everyone.

The argument

The coronavirus pandemic won’t end until at least July 2022 because of the time it will take to develop a safe and effective vaccine. Currently, the world's scientists, drugmakers, and governments are moving with unprecedented haste to develop a vaccine against the virus. However, even with such haste, public health experts predict that a vaccine won’t be ready to be distributed at scale until middle to late 2021. These vaccines are predicted to take this long because developing an efficacious and safe vaccine is difficult and methodical work. Vaccine development is broken into several stages: the exploratory stage, preclinical trials, clinical trials, and regulatory review. These stages all occur before scaling up production, which can take a while. Even when the vaccine is ready to be distributed at scale, it will take time for large-scale distribution to the public to occur. As an Emory University vaccine expert puts it, “It’s not like we can expect 7 billion doses the day after licensure so we can vaccinate the whole world”. Therefore, while vaccine development is moving at an unprecedented pace, it is not feasible for the pandemic to end until well into 2022 because of how long vaccine distribution will take.

Premises

[P1]Developing a safe and effective vaccine is difficult, methodical work spanning exploratory, preclinical, clinical, and regulatory-review stages before production scales up. [P2] Even moving at unprecedented speed, public health experts predicted a vaccine would not be ready for large-scale distribution until mid-to-late 2021. [P3] Distributing billions of doses worldwide would then take considerable additional time, as no one can expect 7 billion doses immediately after licensure. [C] Therefore, a safe vaccine will not be available until mid-late 2021, so the pandemic won't end until at least July 2022.

Counter-arguments

The coronavirus pandemic will end well before July 2022 because a vaccine will be ready and distributed earlier than some might presume. The U.S. FDA, who is responsible for vaccine approval, is considering new guidelines that would push the authorization of a vaccine past election day. Many, including the President of the United States, are calling this move “political.” Donald Trump has told the American people that he will override the FDA if they release tougher standards and have the vaccine distributed as quickly as possible. Four vaccines are already in the final stage of clinical trials in the United States. This is a promising number of vaccines and a promising stage to be in. There is a high likelihood that a successful vaccine may be ready at the end of 2020 or early 2021. Additionally, according to the WHO, 172 countries are now engaged in discussions to participate in COVAX, a global initiative aimed at working with vaccine manufacturers to provide countries worldwide equitable access to safe and effective vaccines. With numerous vaccines in clinical trials, promises from world leaders to expedite the process, and a national effort to develop and distribute a vaccine, the pandemic should end before 2022.

Rejecting the premises

[Rejecting P1] The stages listed are the standard sequence, but they were not run sequentially in 2020: trial phases were overlapped, manufacturing was scaled at risk before approval, and regulators reviewed data on a rolling basis. The premise assumes the ordinary timeline that the response had already departed from. [Rejecting P2] The prediction cited was overtaken within months. The first vaccines were authorised in December 2020 and mass vaccination began immediately, well before the mid-to-late 2021 date this premise treats as the earliest possible. [Rejecting P3] That distribution takes time is correct and is the argument's strongest point, but it does not yield the conclusion. Ending a pandemic in a given country does not require seven billion doses, and the argument sets no threshold of coverage at which it would count the pandemic as over — which is the question the position exists to answer.

Proponents cited

Walter Orenstein
“It's not like we can expect 7 billion doses the day after licensure so we can vaccinate the whole world.”
Vivek Murthy
“If the goal is to return life to some semblance of what it was like pre-pandemic, I don't see that happening in 2021... even in an optimistic scenario, it would likely be closer to mid-2021 that we would see vaccines starting to be distributed at scale.”
Dr. Anthony Fauci
“By the time you mobilize the distribution of the vaccinations, and you get the majority, or more, of the population vaccinated and protected, that's likely not going to happen to the mid or end of 2021”
Oxfam
“Even in the extremely unlikely event that all five vaccines succeed, nearly two thirds (61 percent) of the world’s population will not have a vaccine until at least 2022.”